🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."