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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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